石油设备网讯 据离岸工程6月19日消息称，欧佩克及包括俄罗斯在内的盟友，可以维持目前的减产数额，不再减产，因为今年晚些时候，全球航运燃料标准的改变将导致原油需求激增。
如果不对油价产生不利影响，欧佩克+成员国将无法在2019年下半年提高总体石油产量水平。然而，根据雷斯塔能源的数据，OPEC+为支撑油价所要求的减产幅度不必超过每日150万桶。
这与传统的供需平衡理论相反，因为中、重桶原油市场吃紧，加上IMO 2020即将到来的航运燃料变革，预计将导致原油需求增加。
令人失望的全球需求和美国强劲的产量增长，也对欧佩克可能推迟至7月初的决定构成压力。
就在市场观察人士为在奥地利维也纳举行的第六届欧佩克部长级会议做准备之际，雷斯塔能源首席石油市场分析师Bjornar Tonhaugen发表了以下评估:
Tonhaugen表示：“我们预计，由于国际海事组织(IMO)将于今年晚些时候出台IMO 2020，原油需求将会加速增长，欧佩克可能不会像呼吁的那样减产。尽管如此，在我们看来，欧佩克在2019年剩余时间内不会有增产的空间。然而，由于目前市场原油质量不匹配，中型和重型桶供应紧张以及轻型、甜味原油供应过剩，欧佩克+原油的实际需求（主要由前者组成）将不会下降到全球供需总体数据表明的程度。“
雷斯塔能源的供需预测显示，从2019年第二季度到第四季度，所谓的欧佩克增产呼吁将减少150万桶/天，至2900万桶/天。
预计2019年全球原油和凝析油日产量将平均达到8,400万桶，其中近4,900万桶为欧佩克加上俄罗斯和其他几个支持产油国（即欧佩克+）。
Tonhaugen评论道：“毫无疑问，欧佩克+政策对全球石油供应非常重要。然而，现在重要的是，相对于需求增长，欧佩克+联盟以外的国家的产量将增长到何种程度。我们预计，受美国页岩气产业持续增长的推动，2019年非欧佩克产油国的日产量将同比增长190万桶，而全球需求预计仅将同比增长110万至120万桶。换句话说，由于非欧佩克+国家增加的石油供应超过了全球需求的增长，欧佩克+仍将面临管理产量的压力，以平衡全球市场。”
曹海斌 摘译自 离岸工程
原文如下：
OPEC Output to Remain Flat: Rystad
OPEC and its allies, including Russia, can maintain their current cuts and not reduce outputs any more because there will be a crude oil demand surge later this year from changing shipping fuel standards worldwide.
The OPEC+ countries will not be able to increase their collective oil production levels in the second half of 2019 without having a detrimental effect on oil prices. However, the production cuts required by OPEC+ in order to support prices need not be as much as 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Rystad Energy.
That is contrary to what traditional supply-demand balances suggest, owing to a tight market for medium and heavy barrels and the fast-approaching shipping fuel changes known as IMO 2020, which are expected to cause an increase in crude demand.
Disappointing global demand and strong production growth in the US are also weighing on OPEC+’s decision, which may be postponed to early July.
As market observers are preparing for the 6th OPEC Ministerial Meeting in Vienna, Austria, Rystad Energy’s chief oil market analyst Bjornar Tonhaugen offers the following assessment:
“We expect crude demand to accelerate thanks to the upcoming IMO 2020 regulations later this year, and OPEC will likely not have to cut production as much as the call on OPEC suggests. Having said that, there will not be room for the cartel to increase output for the rest of 2019 in our view,” says Tonhaugen. “However, due to a current crude quality mismatch in the market, with tight supplies of medium and heavy barrels and a surplus of light, sweet supply, the actual call on OPEC+ barrels, which mostly consist of the former, will not decline by as much as overall global supply-demand figures suggest,” he adds.
Rystad Energy’s supply-demand forecast suggests that the so-called call on OPEC production will decline by 1.5 million bpd to 29.0 million bpd from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2019.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus Russia and several other supportive producers, known as OPEC+, account for nearly 49 million of the 84 million bpd of global crude and condensate production expected to be produced on average in 2019.
“Undoubtedly, OPEC+ policies are very important for global oil supply. However, what matters now is the extent to which production will grow from countries outside the OPEC+ alliance relative to demand growth. We expect non-OPEC+ production to grow by 1.9 million bpd year-on-year in 2019, driven by the continued rise of the US shale industry, whereas global demand is expected to grow only by between 1.1 million and 1.2 million bpd year-on-year,” Tonhaugen remarked. “In other words, as non-OPEC+ adds more supply than global demand is increasing by, OPEC+ will still be pressured to manage production in order to balance the global market.”
