石油设备网讯 据普氏能源资讯5月20日沙特阿拉伯吉达报道，从中东到美洲到非洲，欧佩克成员的若干个别国家的供应风险无处不在，夏季石油需求高峰期即将来临，但沙特能源部长哈立德·法利赫(Khalid al-Falih)仍认为全球原油依然过剩。
如果有人怀疑沙特阿拉伯是否有决心维持减产协议，当时许多预测者警告称，未来可能会出现供应紧张，而美国正在向沙特施压，要求沙特增产，法利赫在周日的讲话中再清楚不过了。
他在沙特阿拉伯吉达接受记者采访时表示，我们认为库存上升，供应就会充裕。在吉达，他与俄罗斯总理亚历山大·诺瓦克(Alexander Novak)共同主持了欧佩克/非欧佩克监测委员会会议时，讨论了未来的发展方向。Falih补充道：“总之，我们应该在未来几周或几个月内处于一个舒适的状态。”
他称，欧佩克的主导者将在五六月份将其原油产量保持在970万桶至980万桶左右，即低于欧佩克/非欧佩克石油输出国组织1031万桶/日的配额。他补充道，沙特原油出口量在任何月内都不会超过700万桶。
即使该协议在6月份到期后不再续签，即生产者联盟五周内在维也纳举行会议，沙特仍将大胆坚持至少一个月的配额——以价格支持的名义冒着自己市场份额减少的风险。
”Falih说，我们不会偏离7月份的目标。我希望我的其他同僚们也会这样做。
延期减产的前景尚不明朗。几位部长在监督委员会会议上表示，他们原则上支持继续执行供应协议，但该组织作为一个整体还没有准备好作出承诺。
一些代表说，市场动态的变化可能需要对协议进行某种形式的修改，比如放松一些配额和调整削减水平。
Novak表示，地缘政治不确定性，使欧佩克/非欧佩克联盟稳定石油市场的能力复杂化，而需求前景因贸易争端和经济增长放缓而蒙上阴影。
他在委员会会议后表示，我们需要保持灵活性，我们正试图将这一决定建立在什么对市场最有利的基础上，并做正确的事情来保持市场平衡。
郝芬 译自 Platts
原文如下：
Analysis: Saudi energy minister says world does not need any more oil in coming months
Supply risks abound the peak summer oil demand season is just around the corner, but Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih still sees a world awash in crude.
In case anyone doubted Saudi Arabia's resolve to maintain price-boosting production discipline, when many forecasters are warning of a potential supply squeeze ahead and US President Donald Trump is pressuring the kingdom to open the taps, Falih could not have been more clear Sunday.
"We see inventories rising, we see plentiful supplies," the minister told reporters in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where an OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee that he co-chairs with Russian counterpart Alexander Novak met to debate how much to pump going forward. "All in all we should be in a comfortable situation in the weeks to months to come," Falih added.
So comfortable, in fact, that he said the OPEC kingpin will keep its crude production in May and June at around 9.7 million to 9.8 million b/d. That is more than half a million b/d below its quota under an OPEC/non-OPEC supply accord of 10.31 million b/d. Saudi crude exports would not surpass 7 million b/d in either month, he added.
Even if the deal is not extended beyond its June expiry when the producer coalition meets in five weeks in Vienna, the minister declared that Saudi Arabia will still hold to its quota for at least an extra month -- boldly risking its own market share in the name of price support.
"We are not going to deviate from our target for July," Falih said. "I hope my other colleagues will do the same."
The prospects of rolling over the production cuts are not yet clear. Several ministers at the monitoring committee meeting said they supported in principle a continuation of the supply agreement, but the group as a whole was not ready to be locked into a commitment just yet.
Changing market dynamics may necessitate some kind of amendment to the deal, such as loosening some quotas and adjusting the level of cuts, some delegates said.
Novak said geopolitical uncertainties, complicate the OPEC/non-OPEC coalition's ability to stabilize the oil market, while the demand outlook is clouded by trade disputes and slowing economic growth.
"We need to remain flexible," he said after the committee meeting. "We are trying to base that decision on what's best for the market and do the right thing to keep it balanced."
