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4月或将是有史以来石油市场最糟糕的一个月

文/石油小子 来源:石油设备网   浏览次数:1560 2020-03-24     

石油设备网讯 据今日油价3月18日报道,一些分析师表示,石油生产国正面临历史上最严重的危机,但市场尚未触底。

沙特承诺的数百万桶额外供应将需要一段时间才能达到目的。在需求方面,主要经济体的增长才刚刚开始放缓,而原本存在的经济缺口预计将进一步扩大。越来越多的分析人士表示,全球经济已经陷入衰退。

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)在一份报告中写道:“就在一周前,人们还很难想象石油市场状况会变得多么疲弱。分析师表示,4月份可能出现石油市场历史上最大的供应过剩。预计,今年4月份的需求量降幅将达到1040万桶/天的低谷,2020年,年需求量将下降创纪录的339万桶/天。”

该银行补充道,短期内,4月份石油市场过剩可能会达到创纪录1370万桶/天,第二季度达到1290万桶/天。到今年年底,石油库存可能达到21亿桶,行业中游板块延伸至极限。该数据较世行一周前预估的14亿桶库存盈馀向上修正了50% .

其他分析师甚至有更戏剧性的设想。欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)表示,未来几周和几个月内,日需求量可能下降多达2500万桶。这种历史性的供过于求意味着全球可能会耗尽存储空间。维托尔(Vitol)分析主管乔瓦尼?塞里奥(Giovanni Serio)向英国《金融时报》表示:“通过陆上存储很难解决需求减弱和供应过剩问题,在某个时刻……我们将需要把所有的浮式存储设施都进行填充。”

根据Rystad Energy的数据,仅在欧洲的油田服务行业,经济衰退就可能导致200多家公司破产,占该行业公司总数的20%。高盛表示,西德克萨斯中质原油价格可能跌至每桶23美元至26美元之间。事实上,该行将布伦特原油第二季度预期价格从此前的每桶30美元下调至20美元。周三早盘,西德克萨斯中质原油价格暴跌11%,至每桶24美元左右,当天一度暴跌25%,之后有所反弹。

渣打银行表示:“由于前期油价在累积过剩石油库存的重压下走弱,我们预计美国页岩油行业活动的收缩将加速。”世界银行预测,到2020年12月,美国石油产量将达到1187万桶/天,比目前的水平下降了110万桶/天。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下:

April Could Be Worst Month Ever For Oil

Oil producers are facing their worst crisis in history, but the market is not at a bottom yet, according to several analysts.

The millions of barrels of additional supply promised by Saudi Arabia will take time to reach their destination. On the demand side, major economies have only begun to slow down, and the gaping hole where the economy once stood is expected to widen. A growing number of analysts say that the global economy is already in a recession.

“Even just a week ago, it was difficult to imagine how oil market conditions could become significantly weaker,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note. “However, over the past week the restrictions placed on mobility by European and North American governments as part of their coronavirus response have significantly magnified the negative demand shock.”

Analysts say that the month of April could see the largest supply overhang in the history of the oil market.

“We now expect the y/y demand loss to peak in April at 10.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), and annual demand to fall by a record 3.39mb/d in 2020,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note.

In the short run, the oil market surplus could reach a peak of 13.7 mb/d in April, Standard Chartered said, with an average surplus of 12.9 mb/d for the second quarter. The inventory buildup could reach a gargantuan 2.1 billion barrels by the end of the year, “stretching the midstream of the industry to its limits,” the bank wrote. That figure represents an upward revision of 50 percent from the 1.4-billion-barrel inventory surplus the bank predicted…just a week ago.

Other analysts have even more dramatic scenarios. Eurasia Group says demand could fall by as much as 25 mb/d in the next few weeks and months. The historic glut means that the world could run out of storage space. “The combination of weakening demand and excess supply is hardly going to be accommodated by onshore storage,” Giovanni Serio, head of analysis at Vitol, told the FT. “At a certain point…we will need to fill all the boats.”

The downturn could lead to more than 200 bankruptcies just in the European oilfield services sector, according to Rystad Energy, or 20 percent of total firms in the sector.

Goldman Sachs said WTI could fall to shut-in price levels at between $23 and $26 per barrel, and in fact, the bank cut its forecasted second quarter price for Brent to $20 per barrel, down from $30 previously. In early trading on Wednesday, WTI plunged 11 percent to around $24 per barrel and prices collapsed during the day, falling 25% before recovering some lost ground.

“As front-end prices weaken under the weight of the accumulated surplus oil stockpile, we expect the contraction of activity in the US shale oil industry to accelerate,” Standard Chartered said. The bank forecasts U.S. oil production at 11.87 mb/d in December 2020, down 1.1 mb/d from current levels. In 2021, Standard Chartered said the U.S. may average 11.2 mb/d, exiting the year in December 2021 at 10.69 mb/d.

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